"A robust information base is essential for decision-making, not only in crisis scenarios."

The global crisis situations of recent years have repeatedly put the resilience of the local supply systems to the test. The Corona crisis highlighted the fragility of the economy and its dependence on global production and supply chains. The impact of armed conflict, such as the war in Ukraine, on food and energy supplies is felt throughout the world. But how can a critical supply situation be prevented from becoming catastrophic?

In the ResKriVer project, a digital platform is being implemented that uses artificial intelligence (AI) applications to collect, create and communicate crisis-relevant information for supply chains. In particular, it aims to forecast the impact of bottlenecks in the supply chains of companies and public demanders. We spoke with project leader Professor Thomas Hoppe of Fraunhofer FOKUS and HTW as well as Christoph Stiller, subproject leader of the Berlin Fire Department, about the genesis of the ResKriVer project, the potential for upcoming crises and the transferability of the platform.

Prof. Hoppe, please explain how the ResKriVer project came about and which project partners are on board?

Prof. Thomas Hoppe: Through an announcement from Berlin Partner, I learned about an application workshop for the call for proposals at the time. At short notice, I submitted the pitch presentation of an idea on how we want to support the collection and secure storage of supply chain information and its analysis through a distributed platform. As a result, the Berlin Fire Department, rbb, Merantix, FhG IML, HFC and YOUSE then contacted me saying that they were interested in participating. The rbb then made contact with Charité, the fire department with vfdb and KomRe, and I with Condat and eccenca.

How does your digital platform work and what influence does AI have here?

Prof. Thomas Hoppe: I can't explain here - yet - exactly how the digital platform works. The basic idea behind it is to use semantic modeling - and this is common to at least four of the AI crisis management projects - to describe the respective application area with methods of symbolic AI. On the one hand, this allows easier adaptations and extensions to new crisis/disaster scenarios; on the other hand, especially for crises and disasters, large amounts of data are not available to use non-symbolic AI methods, which include machine learning, artificial neural networks and deep learning, on a large scale.

In the context of ResKriVer, we are using different AI methods for this purpose: speech processing methods for analyzing social media postings, Bayesian networks for analyzing the weak points of supply chains, and reinforcement learning methods for optimizing simulations. We also plan to use Bayesian networks to identify high-risk patients in need of urgent treatment in the event of a crisis, as well as learning methods to compress sensor data collected by drones.

^{Prof Thomas Hoppe © Berlin Partner}

We have been crisis-tested in the last two years, especially due to the Corona pandemic, and have had to experience various bottlenecks due to the shutdown of productions. What systemic weaknesses could ResKriVer help with in the future?

Prof. Thomas Hoppe: As far as supply chains or, more broadly, value chains are concerned, our goal is, on the one hand, to identify weak points, such as "bottlenecks" that lead to disruption in the event of disruptions, and alternatives, such as alternative suppliers, producers or substituting products. And on the other hand, to use real data to make predictions about delivery times, delays and available quantity frameworks.

However, we face a major problem here concerning the availability of the required data. In the globalized world economy with its distributed production and supply processes, we have so far only been able to record sections of these chains - which are actually networks. Although we are developing technologies for the distributed, secure storage of confidential information and for analysis and simulation, we are not yet able to access the necessary data. We need contacts and information on the entire chain, from raw materials to producers, transport companies, suppliers and end customers, in order to make these weak points visible and transparent.

Mr. Stiller, the focus of the Berlin Fire Department's subproject is on ensuring the ability of authorities and organizations with security tasks (BOS) to act. What does that mean in the case of the fire department?

Christoph Stiller: As the Berlin Fire Department, we have to be and remain operational at all times in all areas - including firefighting, emergency rescue and technical assistance, for example. To do this, we need the appropriate equipment: protective gear for the emergency services, technical equipment and medical material to care for patients.

Especially in crises, we depend on functioning supply chains. This includes not only goods and resources, but also crisis-proof communication channels. In the ResKriVer project, the Berlin Fire Department, as a practical partner, provides the expertise for supply and communication processes for authorities and organizations with security tasks.

What crisis scenarios do you encounter regularly or unexpectedly - such as the Corona pandemic? How can the ResKriVer platform help to increase resilience in general?

Christoph Stiller: Examples of unforeseen crises that the Berlin Fire Department has dealt with in the past include the power outage in Köpenick, hurricanes Ylenia and Zeynep in February 2022, or the vegetation fire in Grunewald in July 2022. With some regularity, for example, the Berlin Fire Department provides support during bomb defusions or cares for an increased number of patients during scenarios such as extreme heat or major sporting events. For example, the 2024 European Football Championship, with matches in Berlin, will challenge the Berlin Fire Department in all areas.

ResKriVer contributes to a general increase in resilience by making information accessible quickly and consistently. This includes information such as stockpiles and other available resources, information about impassable areas accessed by drones, and information from the population gathered through social media monitoring. A robust information base is essential for decision-making, and not just in crisis scenarios. A big question at the moment is how to maintain communication channels for key information in the event of a power outage. But also in the everyday life of a BOS, this information basis can strengthen the resilience of an organization by identifying later potential challenges at an early stage and making processes in one's own organization transparent and communicable.